What is Herc Holdings Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Herc Holdings Inc's reported free cash flow gives $722.79 per share. The share price was $164.59 on November 10, 2026, 77% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $339.63 | +106% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $722.79 | +339% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $1,436.24 | +773% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $1,012.88 | $1,103.33 | $1,213.89 | $1,352.08 | $1,529.76 |
| 8.0% | $794.96 | $853.62 | $922.94 | $1,006.13 | $1,107.80 |
| 9.0% | $636.40 | $676.51 | $722.79 | $776.77 | $840.58 |
| 10.0% | $516.18 | $544.70 | $577.02 | $613.96 | $656.59 |
| 11.0% | $422.10 | $443.01 | $466.38 | $492.67 | $522.47 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Herc Holdings Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (19.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions