What is Herc Holdings Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Herc Holdings Inc's reported free cash flow gives $725.84 per share. The share price was $135.36 on September 25, 2026, 81% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $342.68 | +153% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $725.84 | +436% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $1,439.30 | +963% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $1,015.94 | $1,106.39 | $1,216.95 | $1,355.14 | $1,532.81 |
| 8.0% | $798.02 | $856.67 | $926.00 | $1,009.19 | $1,110.86 |
| 9.0% | $639.46 | $679.57 | $725.84 | $779.83 | $843.64 |
| 10.0% | $519.23 | $547.75 | $580.08 | $617.02 | $659.64 |
| 11.0% | $425.16 | $446.07 | $469.44 | $495.73 | $525.52 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Herc Holdings Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (19.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions