What is Hallador Energy Co worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Hallador Energy Co's reported free cash flow gives $8.24 per share. The share price was $14.72 on September 25, 2026, 79% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 9.0% | 10.0% | $4.89 | -67% |
| Base | 14.0% | 9.0% | $8.24 | -44% |
| Bull | 19.0% | 8.0% | $14.48 | -2% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $10.76 | $11.55 | $12.51 | $13.71 | $15.25 |
| 8.0% | $8.87 | $9.38 | $9.98 | $10.70 | $11.58 |
| 9.0% | $7.49 | $7.84 | $8.24 | $8.71 | $9.26 |
| 10.0% | $6.44 | $6.69 | $6.97 | $7.29 | $7.66 |
| 11.0% | $5.62 | $5.80 | $6.01 | $6.23 | $6.49 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Hallador Energy Co's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (14.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions