What is Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $229.70 per share. The share price was $313.96 on September 25, 2026, 37% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $119.23 | -62% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $229.70 | -27% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $435.41 | +39% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $313.34 | $339.42 | $371.30 | $411.14 | $462.37 |
| 8.0% | $250.51 | $267.43 | $287.41 | $311.40 | $340.71 |
| 9.0% | $204.80 | $216.36 | $229.70 | $245.27 | $263.67 |
| 10.0% | $170.14 | $178.36 | $187.68 | $198.33 | $210.62 |
| 11.0% | $143.01 | $149.04 | $155.78 | $163.36 | $171.95 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (22.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions