What is Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $228.66 per share. The share price was $379.76 on November 10, 2026, 66% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $118.19 | -69% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $228.66 | -40% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $434.36 | +14% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $312.30 | $338.38 | $370.25 | $410.10 | $461.32 |
| 8.0% | $249.47 | $266.38 | $286.37 | $310.35 | $339.67 |
| 9.0% | $203.75 | $215.32 | $228.66 | $244.22 | $262.62 |
| 10.0% | $169.09 | $177.31 | $186.63 | $197.28 | $209.57 |
| 11.0% | $141.97 | $147.99 | $154.73 | $162.31 | $170.90 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (22.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions