What is Hillman Solutions Corp. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Hillman Solutions Corp.'s reported free cash flow gives -$0.34 per share. The share price was $7.05 on September 25, 2026, 2,174% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -2.0% | 10.0% | -$1.43 | -120% |
| Base | 3.0% | 9.0% | -$0.34 | -105% |
| Bull | 8.0% | 8.0% | $1.70 | -76% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $0.43 | $0.67 | $0.95 | $1.31 | $1.77 |
| 8.0% | -$0.14 | $0.01 | $0.19 | $0.40 | $0.67 |
| 9.0% | -$0.56 | -$0.46 | -$0.34 | -$0.20 | -$0.04 |
| 10.0% | -$0.88 | -$0.81 | -$0.73 | -$0.63 | -$0.52 |
| 11.0% | -$1.14 | -$1.08 | -$1.02 | -$0.96 | -$0.88 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Hillman Solutions Corp.'s revenue growth rate over the last 4 fiscal years (3.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions