What is Harmonic Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Harmonic Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $11.90 per share. The share price was $9.99 on November 10, 2026, 16% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -6.0% | 10.0% | $7.81 | -22% |
| Base | -1.0% | 9.0% | $11.90 | +19% |
| Bull | 4.0% | 8.0% | $19.54 | +96% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $14.71 | $15.55 | $16.57 | $17.86 | $19.50 |
| 8.0% | $12.63 | $13.17 | $13.82 | $14.59 | $15.53 |
| 9.0% | $11.10 | $11.47 | $11.90 | $12.40 | $12.99 |
| 10.0% | $9.93 | $10.20 | $10.49 | $10.84 | $11.23 |
| 11.0% | $9.01 | $9.20 | $9.42 | $9.66 | $9.94 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Harmonic Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (-1.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions