What is Harmonic Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Harmonic Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $12.02 per share. The share price was $11.01 on September 25, 2026, 8% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -6.0% | 10.0% | $7.93 | -28% |
| Base | -1.0% | 9.0% | $12.02 | +9% |
| Bull | 4.0% | 8.0% | $19.65 | +78% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $14.83 | $15.67 | $16.69 | $17.97 | $19.62 |
| 8.0% | $12.74 | $13.29 | $13.93 | $14.70 | $15.65 |
| 9.0% | $11.22 | $11.59 | $12.02 | $12.52 | $13.11 |
| 10.0% | $10.05 | $10.31 | $10.61 | $10.95 | $11.35 |
| 11.0% | $9.12 | $9.32 | $9.53 | $9.78 | $10.05 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Harmonic Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (-1.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions