What is Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $386.35 per share. The share price was $136.36 on November 10, 2026, 65% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.5% | 10.0% | $236.00 | +73% |
| Base | 6.5% | 9.0% | $386.35 | +183% |
| Bull | 11.5% | 8.0% | $686.12 | +403% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $497.40 | $531.31 | $572.75 | $624.55 | $691.15 |
| 8.0% | $414.53 | $436.51 | $462.50 | $493.68 | $531.80 |
| 9.0% | $353.97 | $369.00 | $386.35 | $406.58 | $430.50 |
| 10.0% | $307.83 | $318.52 | $330.64 | $344.49 | $360.46 |
| 11.0% | $271.55 | $279.39 | $288.15 | $298.01 | $309.17 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (6.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions