What is Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $386.44 per share. The share price was $124.23 on September 25, 2026, 68% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.5% | 10.0% | $236.09 | +90% |
| Base | 6.5% | 9.0% | $386.44 | +211% |
| Bull | 11.5% | 8.0% | $686.21 | +452% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $497.49 | $531.40 | $572.84 | $624.64 | $691.24 |
| 8.0% | $414.62 | $436.61 | $462.59 | $493.77 | $531.89 |
| 9.0% | $354.06 | $369.09 | $386.44 | $406.67 | $430.59 |
| 10.0% | $307.92 | $318.61 | $330.73 | $344.58 | $360.55 |
| 11.0% | $271.64 | $279.48 | $288.24 | $298.10 | $309.27 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (6.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions