What is Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $32.73 per share. The share price was $35.77 on September 25, 2026, 9% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $0.14 | -100% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $32.73 | -8% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $93.41 | +161% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $57.41 | $65.10 | $74.50 | $86.26 | $101.37 |
| 8.0% | $38.87 | $43.86 | $49.76 | $56.83 | $65.48 |
| 9.0% | $25.39 | $28.80 | $32.73 | $37.32 | $42.75 |
| 10.0% | $15.16 | $17.59 | $20.33 | $23.48 | $27.10 |
| 11.0% | $7.16 | $8.94 | $10.92 | $13.16 | $15.70 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (41.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions