What is Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $32.14 per share. The share price was $45.54 on November 10, 2026, 42% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | -$0.45 | -101% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $32.14 | -29% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $92.82 | +104% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $56.82 | $64.51 | $73.91 | $85.67 | $100.78 |
| 8.0% | $38.28 | $43.27 | $49.17 | $56.24 | $64.89 |
| 9.0% | $24.80 | $28.21 | $32.14 | $36.73 | $42.16 |
| 10.0% | $14.57 | $17.00 | $19.74 | $22.89 | $26.51 |
| 11.0% | $6.57 | $8.35 | $10.33 | $12.57 | $15.10 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (41.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions