What is Home Depot, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Home Depot, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $178.79 per share. The share price was $293.20 on September 25, 2026, 64% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -0.5% | 10.0% | $92.77 | -68% |
| Base | 4.5% | 9.0% | $178.79 | -39% |
| Bull | 9.5% | 8.0% | $346.31 | +18% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $240.06 | $258.67 | $281.41 | $309.83 | $346.37 |
| 8.0% | $194.41 | $206.48 | $220.74 | $237.85 | $258.76 |
| 9.0% | $161.02 | $169.27 | $178.79 | $189.89 | $203.01 |
| 10.0% | $135.55 | $141.41 | $148.06 | $155.66 | $164.42 |
| 11.0% | $115.49 | $119.79 | $124.60 | $130.00 | $136.13 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Home Depot, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (4.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions