What is HCI Group, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on HCI Group, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $1,198.68 per share. The share price was $174.94 on September 25, 2026, 85% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $754.90 | +332% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $1,198.68 | +585% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $2,025.02 | +1,058% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $1,534.67 | $1,639.44 | $1,767.48 | $1,927.54 | $2,133.33 |
| 8.0% | $1,282.27 | $1,350.21 | $1,430.50 | $1,526.85 | $1,644.61 |
| 9.0% | $1,098.63 | $1,145.08 | $1,198.68 | $1,261.21 | $1,335.11 |
| 10.0% | $959.38 | $992.41 | $1,029.85 | $1,072.64 | $1,122.01 |
| 11.0% | $850.42 | $874.64 | $901.71 | $932.16 | $966.67 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at HCI Group, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (23.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions