What is HCA Healthcare, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on HCA Healthcare, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $523.13 per share. The share price was $504.42 on November 10, 2026, 4% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.0% | 10.0% | $250.35 | -50% |
| Base | 8.0% | 9.0% | $523.13 | +4% |
| Bull | 13.0% | 8.0% | $1,032.18 | +105% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $721.92 | $782.92 | $857.47 | $950.66 | $1,070.48 |
| 8.0% | $573.34 | $612.90 | $659.65 | $715.74 | $784.31 |
| 9.0% | $464.88 | $491.93 | $523.13 | $559.54 | $602.57 |
| 10.0% | $382.34 | $401.58 | $423.37 | $448.29 | $477.03 |
| 11.0% | $317.52 | $331.62 | $347.38 | $365.11 | $385.20 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at HCA Healthcare, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions