Invesaro

Stocks H DCF valuation

DCF valuation

What is Hyatt Hotels Corp worth?

With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Hyatt Hotels Corp's reported free cash flow gives $15.80 per share. The share price was $158.48 on September 25, 2026, 903% above that value.

Inputs from the filings

Free cash flow, fiscal 2025
$159M
Average free cash flow, last 5 years
$380.2M
Cash
$537M
balance sheet of June 30, 2026
Debt
$4.28B
balance sheet of June 30, 2026
Diluted shares, fiscal 2025
95,504,061
Revenue growth per year, last 5 years
28.0%

Three sets of assumptions

CaseGrowth yrs 1-5Growth yrs 6-10After year 10Discount rateValue per shareValue vs price
Bear10.0%6.0%2.0%10.0%-$5.78-104%
Base15.0%9.0%2.5%9.0%$15.80-90%
Bull20.0%11.5%3.0%8.0%$55.99-65%

Sensitivity: base case value per share

Discount rate down the side, growth after year 10 across the top. Everything else as in the base case.

1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
7.0%$32.14$37.24$43.47$51.25$61.26
8.0%$19.87$23.17$27.08$31.76$37.49
9.0%$10.94$13.20$15.80$18.84$22.44
10.0%$4.16$5.77$7.59$9.67$12.07
11.0%-$1.14$0.04$1.36$2.84$4.52

Where the presets come from

Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Hyatt Hotels Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (28.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.

Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.

Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.

This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.

Adjust the assumptions

Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.

Adjust the assumptions

Hyatt Hotels Corp company page