What is GXO Logistics, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on GXO Logistics, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $10.32 per share. The share price was $45.20 on September 25, 2026, 338% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | -$1.94 | -104% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $10.32 | -77% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $33.15 | -27% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $19.60 | $22.50 | $26.04 | $30.46 | $36.15 |
| 8.0% | $12.63 | $14.51 | $16.73 | $19.39 | $22.64 |
| 9.0% | $7.56 | $8.84 | $10.32 | $12.05 | $14.09 |
| 10.0% | $3.71 | $4.62 | $5.66 | $6.84 | $8.20 |
| 11.0% | $0.70 | $1.37 | $2.12 | $2.96 | $3.91 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at GXO Logistics, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 4 fiscal years (20.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions