What is Guidewire Software, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Guidewire Software, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $145.11 per share. The share price was $145.56 on September 25, 2026, 0% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 9.5% | 10.0% | $91.33 | -37% |
| Base | 14.5% | 9.0% | $145.11 | -0% |
| Bull | 19.5% | 8.0% | $252.22 | +73% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $186.70 | $199.64 | $215.46 | $235.23 | $260.65 |
| 8.0% | $155.48 | $163.87 | $173.79 | $185.69 | $200.24 |
| 9.0% | $132.76 | $138.49 | $145.11 | $152.84 | $161.97 |
| 10.0% | $115.52 | $119.60 | $124.22 | $129.51 | $135.61 |
| 11.0% | $102.03 | $105.02 | $108.36 | $112.12 | $116.38 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Guidewire Software, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (14.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions