What is Garmin Ltd worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Garmin Ltd's reported free cash flow gives $198.87 per share. The share price was $288.66 on November 10, 2026, 45% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 6.5% | 10.0% | $127.33 | -56% |
| Base | 11.5% | 9.0% | $198.87 | -31% |
| Bull | 16.5% | 8.0% | $341.44 | +18% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $253.30 | $270.12 | $290.69 | $316.40 | $349.45 |
| 8.0% | $212.52 | $223.43 | $236.33 | $251.80 | $270.72 |
| 9.0% | $182.80 | $190.26 | $198.87 | $208.91 | $220.78 |
| 10.0% | $160.22 | $165.53 | $171.54 | $178.41 | $186.34 |
| 11.0% | $142.52 | $146.41 | $150.76 | $155.65 | $161.19 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Garmin Ltd's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (11.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions