What is Group 1 Automotive Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Group 1 Automotive Inc's reported free cash flow gives $865.22 per share. The share price was $264.18 on November 10, 2026, 69% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $433.14 | +64% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $865.22 | +228% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $1,669.76 | +532% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $1,192.35 | $1,294.35 | $1,419.02 | $1,574.86 | $1,775.22 |
| 8.0% | $946.61 | $1,012.75 | $1,090.93 | $1,184.74 | $1,299.39 |
| 9.0% | $767.81 | $813.03 | $865.22 | $926.10 | $998.05 |
| 10.0% | $632.23 | $664.39 | $700.84 | $742.50 | $790.57 |
| 11.0% | $526.15 | $549.72 | $576.08 | $605.72 | $639.32 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Group 1 Automotive Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (16.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions