What is Genuine Parts Co worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Genuine Parts Co's reported free cash flow gives $40.13 per share. The share price was $129.61 on September 25, 2026, 223% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.0% | 10.0% | $14.46 | -89% |
| Base | 8.0% | 9.0% | $40.13 | -69% |
| Bull | 13.0% | 8.0% | $88.04 | -32% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $58.84 | $64.58 | $71.60 | $80.37 | $91.65 |
| 8.0% | $44.86 | $48.58 | $52.98 | $58.26 | $64.71 |
| 9.0% | $34.65 | $37.20 | $40.13 | $43.56 | $47.61 |
| 10.0% | $26.88 | $28.69 | $30.74 | $33.09 | $35.79 |
| 11.0% | $20.78 | $22.11 | $23.59 | $25.26 | $27.15 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Genuine Parts Co's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions