What is Genuine Parts Co worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Genuine Parts Co's reported free cash flow gives $38.04 per share. The share price was $126.15 on November 10, 2026, 232% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.0% | 10.0% | $12.37 | -90% |
| Base | 8.0% | 9.0% | $38.04 | -70% |
| Bull | 13.0% | 8.0% | $85.95 | -32% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $56.75 | $62.49 | $69.51 | $78.28 | $89.55 |
| 8.0% | $42.77 | $46.49 | $50.89 | $56.17 | $62.62 |
| 9.0% | $32.56 | $35.10 | $38.04 | $41.47 | $45.52 |
| 10.0% | $24.79 | $26.60 | $28.65 | $31.00 | $33.70 |
| 11.0% | $18.69 | $20.02 | $21.50 | $23.17 | $25.06 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Genuine Parts Co's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions