What is Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.'s reported free cash flow gives $1.05 per share. The share price was $11.07 on September 25, 2026, 952% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.5% | 10.0% | -$1.00 | -109% |
| Base | 8.5% | 9.0% | $1.05 | -90% |
| Bull | 13.5% | 8.0% | $5.15 | -53% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $2.59 | $3.06 | $3.64 | $4.36 | $5.29 |
| 8.0% | $1.44 | $1.75 | $2.11 | $2.54 | $3.07 |
| 9.0% | $0.60 | $0.81 | $1.05 | $1.33 | $1.67 |
| 10.0% | -$0.04 | $0.11 | $0.28 | $0.47 | $0.70 |
| 11.0% | -$0.54 | -$0.43 | -$0.31 | -$0.17 | -$0.02 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions