What is GigaCloud Technology Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on GigaCloud Technology Inc's reported free cash flow gives $166.71 per share. The share price was $53.98 on September 25, 2026, 68% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $104.72 | +94% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $166.71 | +209% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $282.12 | +423% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $213.63 | $228.27 | $246.15 | $268.50 | $297.25 |
| 8.0% | $178.38 | $187.87 | $199.08 | $212.54 | $228.99 |
| 9.0% | $152.73 | $159.22 | $166.71 | $175.44 | $185.76 |
| 10.0% | $133.28 | $137.90 | $143.13 | $149.10 | $156.00 |
| 11.0% | $118.07 | $121.45 | $125.23 | $129.48 | $134.30 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at GigaCloud Technology Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (36.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions