What is Gap Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Gap Inc's reported free cash flow gives $34.66 per share. The share price was $21.82 on September 25, 2026, 37% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -3.0% | 10.0% | $22.15 | +2% |
| Base | 2.0% | 9.0% | $34.66 | +59% |
| Bull | 7.0% | 8.0% | $58.03 | +166% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $43.44 | $46.09 | $49.32 | $53.37 | $58.57 |
| 8.0% | $36.91 | $38.63 | $40.66 | $43.09 | $46.07 |
| 9.0% | $32.13 | $33.31 | $34.66 | $36.24 | $38.11 |
| 10.0% | $28.48 | $29.32 | $30.26 | $31.34 | $32.59 |
| 11.0% | $25.60 | $26.21 | $26.90 | $27.67 | $28.54 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Gap Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (2.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions