What is First National Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on First National Corp's reported free cash flow gives $90.83 per share.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 9.0% | 10.0% | $62.47 | - |
| Base | 14.0% | 9.0% | $90.83 | - |
| Bull | 19.0% | 8.0% | $143.66 | - |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $112.19 | $118.84 | $126.96 | $137.12 | $150.17 |
| 8.0% | $96.16 | $100.47 | $105.56 | $111.67 | $119.14 |
| 9.0% | $84.48 | $87.43 | $90.83 | $94.80 | $99.49 |
| 10.0% | $75.63 | $77.72 | $80.10 | $82.81 | $85.95 |
| 11.0% | $68.70 | $70.23 | $71.95 | $73.88 | $76.07 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at First National Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (13.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions