What is Forward Air Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Forward Air Corp's reported free cash flow gives -$33.39 per share. The share price was $17.65 on November 9, 2026, 153% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 9.5% | 10.0% | -$39.43 | -323% |
| Base | 14.5% | 9.0% | -$33.39 | -289% |
| Bull | 19.5% | 8.0% | -$21.35 | -221% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | -$28.71 | -$27.26 | -$25.48 | -$23.26 | -$20.40 |
| 8.0% | -$32.22 | -$31.28 | -$30.16 | -$28.83 | -$27.19 |
| 9.0% | -$34.78 | -$34.13 | -$33.39 | -$32.52 | -$31.49 |
| 10.0% | -$36.71 | -$36.26 | -$35.74 | -$35.14 | -$34.46 |
| 11.0% | -$38.23 | -$37.89 | -$37.52 | -$37.10 | -$36.62 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Forward Air Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (14.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions