What is Forward Air Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Forward Air Corp's reported free cash flow gives -$34.77 per share. The share price was $14.69 on September 25, 2026, 142% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 9.5% | 10.0% | -$40.81 | -378% |
| Base | 14.5% | 9.0% | -$34.77 | -337% |
| Bull | 19.5% | 8.0% | -$22.73 | -255% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | -$30.09 | -$28.64 | -$26.86 | -$24.64 | -$21.78 |
| 8.0% | -$33.60 | -$32.66 | -$31.54 | -$30.20 | -$28.57 |
| 9.0% | -$36.15 | -$35.51 | -$34.77 | -$33.90 | -$32.87 |
| 10.0% | -$38.09 | -$37.63 | -$37.11 | -$36.52 | -$35.83 |
| 11.0% | -$39.61 | -$39.27 | -$38.90 | -$38.47 | -$37.99 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Forward Air Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (14.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions