What is Federal Signal Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Federal Signal Corp's reported free cash flow gives $109.53 per share. The share price was $115.16 on November 10, 2026, 5% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 9.0% | 10.0% | $64.42 | -44% |
| Base | 14.0% | 9.0% | $109.53 | -5% |
| Bull | 19.0% | 8.0% | $193.56 | +68% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $143.51 | $154.08 | $167.01 | $183.16 | $203.93 |
| 8.0% | $118.00 | $124.86 | $132.96 | $142.69 | $154.57 |
| 9.0% | $99.43 | $104.12 | $109.53 | $115.84 | $123.30 |
| 10.0% | $85.35 | $88.68 | $92.46 | $96.78 | $101.76 |
| 11.0% | $74.32 | $76.77 | $79.50 | $82.57 | $86.05 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Federal Signal Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (14.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions