What is First Solar, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on First Solar, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $360.02 per share. The share price was $177.71 on September 25, 2026, 51% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 9.0% | 10.0% | $225.15 | +27% |
| Base | 14.0% | 9.0% | $360.02 | +103% |
| Bull | 19.0% | 8.0% | $611.25 | +244% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $461.61 | $493.22 | $531.86 | $580.15 | $642.24 |
| 8.0% | $385.35 | $405.85 | $430.07 | $459.14 | $494.68 |
| 9.0% | $329.83 | $343.85 | $360.02 | $378.89 | $401.19 |
| 10.0% | $287.72 | $297.69 | $308.98 | $321.89 | $336.79 |
| 11.0% | $254.75 | $262.06 | $270.23 | $279.41 | $289.83 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at First Solar, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (14.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions