What is First Solar, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on First Solar, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $358.98 per share. The share price was $180.98 on November 10, 2026, 50% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 9.0% | 10.0% | $224.11 | +24% |
| Base | 14.0% | 9.0% | $358.98 | +98% |
| Bull | 19.0% | 8.0% | $610.20 | +237% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $460.57 | $492.18 | $530.81 | $579.11 | $641.20 |
| 8.0% | $384.30 | $404.80 | $429.03 | $458.10 | $493.63 |
| 9.0% | $328.79 | $342.80 | $358.98 | $377.84 | $400.14 |
| 10.0% | $286.68 | $296.64 | $307.94 | $320.85 | $335.74 |
| 11.0% | $253.71 | $261.01 | $269.18 | $278.37 | $288.78 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at First Solar, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (14.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions