What is FS Bancorp, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on FS Bancorp, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $149.66 per share. The share price was $43.52 on November 10, 2026, 71% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.5% | 10.0% | $95.54 | +120% |
| Base | 7.5% | 9.0% | $149.66 | +244% |
| Bull | 12.5% | 8.0% | $257.56 | +492% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $189.88 | $202.20 | $217.25 | $236.06 | $260.25 |
| 8.0% | $159.84 | $167.83 | $177.26 | $188.59 | $202.43 |
| 9.0% | $137.90 | $143.36 | $149.66 | $157.01 | $165.70 |
| 10.0% | $121.20 | $125.08 | $129.48 | $134.51 | $140.31 |
| 11.0% | $108.07 | $110.92 | $114.10 | $117.68 | $121.73 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at FS Bancorp, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions