What is FS Bancorp, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on FS Bancorp, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $147.80 per share. The share price was $44.18 on September 25, 2026, 70% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.5% | 10.0% | $93.68 | +112% |
| Base | 7.5% | 9.0% | $147.80 | +235% |
| Bull | 12.5% | 8.0% | $255.70 | +479% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $188.02 | $200.33 | $215.38 | $234.20 | $258.38 |
| 8.0% | $157.98 | $165.96 | $175.40 | $186.73 | $200.57 |
| 9.0% | $136.04 | $141.50 | $147.80 | $155.15 | $163.83 |
| 10.0% | $119.33 | $123.22 | $127.62 | $132.65 | $138.45 |
| 11.0% | $106.21 | $109.05 | $112.24 | $115.81 | $119.87 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at FS Bancorp, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions