What is Freshpet, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Freshpet, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $13.47 per share. The share price was $64.61 on November 10, 2026, 380% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $10.61 | -84% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $13.47 | -79% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $18.80 | -71% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $15.64 | $16.31 | $17.14 | $18.17 | $19.50 |
| 8.0% | $14.01 | $14.45 | $14.97 | $15.59 | $16.35 |
| 9.0% | $12.82 | $13.12 | $13.47 | $13.87 | $14.35 |
| 10.0% | $11.93 | $12.14 | $12.38 | $12.66 | $12.97 |
| 11.0% | $11.22 | $11.38 | $11.55 | $11.75 | $11.97 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Freshpet, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (28.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions