What is Fox Factory Holding Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Fox Factory Holding Corp's reported free cash flow gives $5.67 per share. The share price was $18.55 on September 25, 2026, 227% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 5.5% | 10.0% | -$0.50 | -103% |
| Base | 10.5% | 9.0% | $5.67 | -69% |
| Bull | 15.5% | 8.0% | $17.97 | -3% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $10.34 | $11.78 | $13.54 | $15.74 | $18.56 |
| 8.0% | $6.84 | $7.78 | $8.88 | $10.20 | $11.82 |
| 9.0% | $4.29 | $4.93 | $5.67 | $6.53 | $7.54 |
| 10.0% | $2.36 | $2.81 | $3.33 | $3.91 | $4.59 |
| 11.0% | $0.84 | $1.17 | $1.54 | $1.96 | $2.43 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Fox Factory Holding Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (10.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions