What is Shift4 Payments, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Shift4 Payments, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $12,342.88 per share. The share price was $38.45 on September 25, 2026, 100% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $6,277.04 | +16,225% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $12,342.88 | +32,001% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $23,637.70 | +61,376% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $16,935.43 | $18,367.40 | $20,117.60 | $22,305.34 | $25,118.15 |
| 8.0% | $13,485.46 | $14,414.09 | $15,511.57 | $16,828.54 | $18,438.17 |
| 9.0% | $10,975.34 | $11,610.27 | $12,342.88 | $13,197.59 | $14,207.70 |
| 10.0% | $9,072.00 | $9,523.53 | $10,035.25 | $10,620.08 | $11,294.88 |
| 11.0% | $7,582.72 | $7,913.74 | $8,283.70 | $8,699.90 | $9,171.60 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Shift4 Payments, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (40.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions