What is Shift4 Payments, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Shift4 Payments, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $12,278.40 per share. The share price was $43.73 on November 10, 2026, 100% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $6,212.55 | +14,107% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $12,278.40 | +27,978% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $23,573.22 | +53,806% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $16,870.94 | $18,302.92 | $20,053.11 | $22,240.86 | $25,053.67 |
| 8.0% | $13,420.97 | $14,349.61 | $15,447.08 | $16,764.05 | $18,373.69 |
| 9.0% | $10,910.86 | $11,545.79 | $12,278.40 | $13,133.11 | $14,143.22 |
| 10.0% | $9,007.52 | $9,459.04 | $9,970.77 | $10,555.60 | $11,230.40 |
| 11.0% | $7,518.24 | $7,849.26 | $8,219.22 | $8,635.42 | $9,107.12 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Shift4 Payments, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (40.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions