What is Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $19.59 per share. The share price was $47.06 on September 25, 2026, 140% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 9.0% | 10.0% | $12.37 | -74% |
| Base | 14.0% | 9.0% | $19.59 | -58% |
| Bull | 19.0% | 8.0% | $33.03 | -30% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $25.02 | $26.72 | $28.78 | $31.37 | $34.69 |
| 8.0% | $20.94 | $22.04 | $23.34 | $24.89 | $26.79 |
| 9.0% | $17.97 | $18.72 | $19.59 | $20.60 | $21.79 |
| 10.0% | $15.72 | $16.25 | $16.85 | $17.55 | $18.34 |
| 11.0% | $13.95 | $14.34 | $14.78 | $15.27 | $15.83 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (14.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions