What is Flowers Foods Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Flowers Foods Inc's reported free cash flow gives $17.47 per share. The share price was $5.74 on September 25, 2026, 67% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -1.5% | 10.0% | $8.13 | +42% |
| Base | 3.5% | 9.0% | $17.47 | +204% |
| Bull | 8.5% | 8.0% | $36.09 | +529% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $24.24 | $26.28 | $28.79 | $31.92 | $35.94 |
| 8.0% | $19.20 | $20.53 | $22.10 | $23.98 | $26.28 |
| 9.0% | $15.51 | $16.42 | $17.47 | $18.69 | $20.14 |
| 10.0% | $12.70 | $13.34 | $14.08 | $14.91 | $15.88 |
| 11.0% | $10.48 | $10.95 | $11.48 | $12.08 | $12.75 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Flowers Foods Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (3.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions