What is National Beverage Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on National Beverage Corp's reported free cash flow gives $26.86 per share. The share price was $29.67 on September 25, 2026, 10% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -3.0% | 10.0% | $17.13 | -42% |
| Base | 2.0% | 9.0% | $26.86 | -9% |
| Bull | 7.0% | 8.0% | $45.03 | +52% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $33.69 | $35.74 | $38.26 | $41.41 | $45.45 |
| 8.0% | $28.61 | $29.95 | $31.52 | $33.42 | $35.73 |
| 9.0% | $24.89 | $25.81 | $26.86 | $28.09 | $29.54 |
| 10.0% | $22.05 | $22.70 | $23.44 | $24.28 | $25.25 |
| 11.0% | $19.82 | $20.29 | $20.82 | $21.42 | $22.10 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at National Beverage Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (1.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions