What is Comfort Systems USA Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Comfort Systems USA Inc's reported free cash flow gives $1,013.17 per share. The share price was $1,658.91 on September 25, 2026, 64% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $635.55 | -62% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $1,013.17 | -39% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $1,716.29 | +3% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $1,299.06 | $1,388.21 | $1,497.16 | $1,633.35 | $1,808.46 |
| 8.0% | $1,084.29 | $1,142.10 | $1,210.42 | $1,292.41 | $1,392.61 |
| 9.0% | $928.03 | $967.56 | $1,013.17 | $1,066.37 | $1,129.25 |
| 10.0% | $809.55 | $837.65 | $869.51 | $905.92 | $947.93 |
| 11.0% | $716.83 | $737.44 | $760.47 | $786.38 | $815.75 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Comfort Systems USA Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (26.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions