What is Comfort Systems USA Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Comfort Systems USA Inc's reported free cash flow gives $1,021.86 per share. The share price was $1,127.90 on November 10, 2026, 10% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $644.24 | -43% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $1,021.86 | -9% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $1,724.98 | +53% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $1,307.75 | $1,396.90 | $1,505.85 | $1,642.04 | $1,817.15 |
| 8.0% | $1,092.98 | $1,150.79 | $1,219.11 | $1,301.10 | $1,401.30 |
| 9.0% | $936.72 | $976.25 | $1,021.86 | $1,075.06 | $1,137.94 |
| 10.0% | $818.24 | $846.34 | $878.20 | $914.61 | $956.62 |
| 11.0% | $725.52 | $746.13 | $769.16 | $795.07 | $824.44 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Comfort Systems USA Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (26.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions