What is Five Below, Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Five Below, Inc's reported free cash flow gives $255.48 per share. The share price was $222.60 on September 25, 2026, 13% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $159.20 | -28% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $255.48 | +15% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $434.75 | +95% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $328.37 | $351.10 | $378.88 | $413.60 | $458.25 |
| 8.0% | $273.61 | $288.35 | $305.77 | $326.68 | $352.22 |
| 9.0% | $233.77 | $243.85 | $255.48 | $269.04 | $285.08 |
| 10.0% | $203.56 | $210.73 | $218.85 | $228.13 | $238.84 |
| 11.0% | $179.92 | $185.18 | $191.05 | $197.66 | $205.14 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Five Below, Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (19.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions