What is Ferguson Enterprises Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Ferguson Enterprises Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $98.31 per share. The share price was $259.44 on November 10, 2026, 164% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -2.5% | 10.0% | $50.29 | -81% |
| Base | 2.5% | 9.0% | $98.31 | -62% |
| Bull | 7.5% | 8.0% | $191.83 | -26% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $132.07 | $142.26 | $154.71 | $170.28 | $190.29 |
| 8.0% | $106.97 | $113.58 | $121.39 | $130.76 | $142.21 |
| 9.0% | $88.58 | $93.10 | $98.31 | $104.39 | $111.58 |
| 10.0% | $74.54 | $77.75 | $81.39 | $85.55 | $90.36 |
| 11.0% | $63.47 | $65.82 | $68.46 | $71.42 | $74.77 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Ferguson Enterprises Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 3 fiscal years (2.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions