What is Ferguson Enterprises Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Ferguson Enterprises Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $104.47 per share. The share price was $222.74 on September 25, 2026, 113% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -2.5% | 10.0% | $56.45 | -75% |
| Base | 2.5% | 9.0% | $104.47 | -53% |
| Bull | 7.5% | 8.0% | $197.99 | -11% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $138.23 | $148.42 | $160.87 | $176.44 | $196.45 |
| 8.0% | $113.13 | $119.74 | $127.55 | $136.91 | $148.37 |
| 9.0% | $94.74 | $99.26 | $104.47 | $110.55 | $117.74 |
| 10.0% | $80.70 | $83.91 | $87.55 | $91.71 | $96.51 |
| 11.0% | $69.63 | $71.98 | $74.61 | $77.58 | $80.93 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Ferguson Enterprises Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 3 fiscal years (2.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions