What is Fedex Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Fedex Corp's reported free cash flow gives $362.28 per share. The share price was $319.48 on November 10, 2026, 12% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -2.5% | 10.0% | $234.54 | -27% |
| Base | 2.5% | 9.0% | $362.28 | +13% |
| Bull | 7.5% | 8.0% | $611.05 | +91% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $452.09 | $479.18 | $512.31 | $553.71 | $606.94 |
| 8.0% | $385.31 | $402.89 | $423.66 | $448.58 | $479.04 |
| 9.0% | $336.40 | $348.42 | $362.28 | $378.46 | $397.57 |
| 10.0% | $299.05 | $307.59 | $317.27 | $328.34 | $341.11 |
| 11.0% | $269.59 | $275.86 | $282.86 | $290.73 | $299.66 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Fedex Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (2.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions