What is Fedex Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Fedex Corp's reported free cash flow gives $295.11 per share. The share price was $285.85 on September 25, 2026, 3% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -2.5% | 10.0% | $167.37 | -41% |
| Base | 2.5% | 9.0% | $295.11 | +3% |
| Bull | 7.5% | 8.0% | $543.88 | +90% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $384.91 | $412.01 | $445.13 | $486.54 | $539.77 |
| 8.0% | $318.14 | $335.71 | $356.48 | $381.41 | $411.87 |
| 9.0% | $269.23 | $281.25 | $295.11 | $311.29 | $330.40 |
| 10.0% | $231.87 | $240.42 | $250.10 | $261.17 | $273.94 |
| 11.0% | $202.42 | $208.68 | $215.69 | $223.56 | $232.49 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Fedex Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (2.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions