What is First Citizens Bancshares Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on First Citizens Bancshares Inc's reported free cash flow gives $3,276.23 per share. The share price was $2,098.23 on September 28, 2026, 36% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $1,069.66 | -49% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $3,276.23 | +56% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $7,384.93 | +252% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $4,946.85 | $5,467.76 | $6,104.42 | $6,900.25 | $7,923.47 |
| 8.0% | $3,691.86 | $4,029.67 | $4,428.89 | $4,907.97 | $5,493.50 |
| 9.0% | $2,778.76 | $3,009.73 | $3,276.23 | $3,587.14 | $3,954.59 |
| 10.0% | $2,086.38 | $2,250.63 | $2,436.78 | $2,649.53 | $2,895.00 |
| 11.0% | $1,544.63 | $1,665.04 | $1,799.62 | $1,951.03 | $2,122.62 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at First Citizens Bancshares Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 3 fiscal years (23.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions