What is First Bancorp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on First Bancorp's reported free cash flow gives $167.61 per share. The share price was $64.81 on November 10, 2026, 61% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $105.41 | +63% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $167.61 | +159% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $283.43 | +337% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $214.70 | $229.39 | $247.34 | $269.77 | $298.61 |
| 8.0% | $179.33 | $188.85 | $200.10 | $213.61 | $230.11 |
| 9.0% | $153.59 | $160.10 | $167.61 | $176.37 | $186.73 |
| 10.0% | $134.07 | $138.70 | $143.95 | $149.94 | $156.86 |
| 11.0% | $118.80 | $122.19 | $125.98 | $130.25 | $135.09 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at First Bancorp's revenue growth rate over the last 4 fiscal years (27.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions