What is National Vision Holdings, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on National Vision Holdings, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $12.52 per share. The share price was $16.53 on September 25, 2026, 32% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -2.0% | 10.0% | $6.85 | -59% |
| Base | 3.0% | 9.0% | $12.52 | -24% |
| Bull | 8.0% | 8.0% | $23.10 | +40% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $16.52 | $17.73 | $19.21 | $21.06 | $23.44 |
| 8.0% | $13.54 | $14.33 | $15.26 | $16.37 | $17.73 |
| 9.0% | $11.36 | $11.90 | $12.52 | $13.24 | $14.09 |
| 10.0% | $9.69 | $10.08 | $10.51 | $11.00 | $11.58 |
| 11.0% | $8.38 | $8.66 | $8.98 | $9.33 | $9.73 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at National Vision Holdings, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (3.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions