What is Extra Space Storage Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Extra Space Storage Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $204.23 per share. The share price was $133.35 on September 25, 2026, 35% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $125.38 | -6% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $204.23 | +53% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $351.05 | +163% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $263.92 | $282.54 | $305.29 | $333.73 | $370.29 |
| 8.0% | $219.08 | $231.15 | $245.42 | $262.54 | $283.46 |
| 9.0% | $186.45 | $194.70 | $204.23 | $215.34 | $228.47 |
| 10.0% | $161.71 | $167.58 | $174.23 | $181.83 | $190.60 |
| 11.0% | $142.35 | $146.65 | $151.46 | $156.87 | $163.00 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Extra Space Storage Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (20.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions