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DCF valuation

What is Extra Space Storage Inc. worth?

With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Extra Space Storage Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $204.23 per share. The share price was $133.35 on September 25, 2026, 35% below that value.

Inputs from the filings

Free cash flow, fiscal 2025
$1.29B
Cash
$695.2M
balance sheet of June 30, 2026
Debt
$0
not reported, counted as 0
Diluted shares, fiscal 2025
211,850,521
Revenue growth per year, last 5 years
20.0%

Three sets of assumptions

CaseGrowth yrs 1-5Growth yrs 6-10After year 10Discount rateValue per shareValue vs price
Bear10.0%6.0%2.0%10.0%$125.38-6%
Base15.0%9.0%2.5%9.0%$204.23+53%
Bull20.0%11.5%3.0%8.0%$351.05+163%

Sensitivity: base case value per share

Discount rate down the side, growth after year 10 across the top. Everything else as in the base case.

1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
7.0%$263.92$282.54$305.29$333.73$370.29
8.0%$219.08$231.15$245.42$262.54$283.46
9.0%$186.45$194.70$204.23$215.34$228.47
10.0%$161.71$167.58$174.23$181.83$190.60
11.0%$142.35$146.65$151.46$156.87$163.00

Where the presets come from

Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Extra Space Storage Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (20.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.

Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.

Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.

This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.

Adjust the assumptions

Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.

Adjust the assumptions

Extra Space Storage Inc. company page