What is Exponent Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Exponent Inc's reported free cash flow gives $53.80 per share. The share price was $64.18 on September 25, 2026, 19% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.0% | 10.0% | $33.52 | -48% |
| Base | 8.0% | 9.0% | $53.80 | -16% |
| Bull | 13.0% | 8.0% | $91.64 | +43% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $68.58 | $73.11 | $78.65 | $85.58 | $94.48 |
| 8.0% | $57.53 | $60.47 | $63.95 | $68.12 | $73.21 |
| 9.0% | $49.47 | $51.48 | $53.80 | $56.50 | $59.70 |
| 10.0% | $43.33 | $44.76 | $46.38 | $48.24 | $50.37 |
| 11.0% | $38.51 | $39.56 | $40.73 | $42.05 | $43.55 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Exponent Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions