What is Expedia Group, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Expedia Group, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $788.03 per share. The share price was $264.17 on September 25, 2026, 66% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $482.44 | +83% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $788.03 | +198% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $1,357.04 | +414% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $1,019.40 | $1,091.54 | $1,179.71 | $1,289.92 | $1,431.63 |
| 8.0% | $845.59 | $892.38 | $947.66 | $1,014.01 | $1,095.10 |
| 9.0% | $719.14 | $751.12 | $788.03 | $831.09 | $881.98 |
| 10.0% | $623.25 | $646.00 | $671.78 | $701.24 | $735.24 |
| 11.0% | $548.22 | $564.90 | $583.54 | $604.50 | $628.27 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Expedia Group, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (23.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions