What is Expeditors International of Washington Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Expeditors International of Washington Inc's reported free cash flow gives $122.59 per share. The share price was $189.59 on November 9, 2026, 55% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -2.0% | 10.0% | $79.07 | -58% |
| Base | 3.0% | 9.0% | $122.59 | -35% |
| Bull | 8.0% | 8.0% | $203.86 | +8% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $153.33 | $162.63 | $173.99 | $188.20 | $206.47 |
| 8.0% | $130.45 | $136.49 | $143.61 | $152.17 | $162.62 |
| 9.0% | $113.71 | $117.83 | $122.59 | $128.14 | $134.70 |
| 10.0% | $100.93 | $103.86 | $107.18 | $110.98 | $115.36 |
| 11.0% | $90.85 | $93.00 | $95.41 | $98.11 | $101.17 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Expeditors International of Washington Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (2.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions