What is Eagle Materials Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Eagle Materials Inc's reported free cash flow gives $82.55 per share. The share price was $178.49 on September 25, 2026, 116% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.5% | 10.0% | $33.71 | -81% |
| Base | 7.5% | 9.0% | $82.55 | -54% |
| Bull | 12.5% | 8.0% | $179.93 | +1% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $118.85 | $129.97 | $143.55 | $160.52 | $182.35 |
| 8.0% | $91.74 | $98.95 | $107.46 | $117.68 | $130.18 |
| 9.0% | $71.94 | $76.87 | $82.55 | $89.19 | $97.02 |
| 10.0% | $56.87 | $60.37 | $64.34 | $68.88 | $74.12 |
| 11.0% | $45.02 | $47.59 | $50.46 | $53.69 | $57.35 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Eagle Materials Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions