What is Exelixis, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Exelixis, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $103.66 per share. The share price was $58.16 on September 25, 2026, 44% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $63.38 | +9% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $103.66 | +78% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $178.67 | +207% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $134.16 | $143.67 | $155.30 | $169.83 | $188.51 |
| 8.0% | $111.25 | $117.42 | $124.71 | $133.45 | $144.14 |
| 9.0% | $94.58 | $98.80 | $103.66 | $109.34 | $116.05 |
| 10.0% | $81.94 | $84.94 | $88.34 | $92.22 | $96.70 |
| 11.0% | $72.05 | $74.25 | $76.70 | $79.47 | $82.60 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Exelixis, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (18.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions