What is Exelixis, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Exelixis, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $103.74 per share. The share price was $70.58 on November 10, 2026, 32% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $63.46 | -10% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $103.74 | +47% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $178.76 | +153% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $134.25 | $143.76 | $155.38 | $169.91 | $188.59 |
| 8.0% | $111.33 | $117.50 | $124.79 | $133.54 | $144.23 |
| 9.0% | $94.66 | $98.88 | $103.74 | $109.42 | $116.13 |
| 10.0% | $82.02 | $85.02 | $88.42 | $92.30 | $96.78 |
| 11.0% | $72.13 | $74.33 | $76.79 | $79.55 | $82.68 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Exelixis, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (18.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions