What is Etsy Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Etsy Inc's reported free cash flow gives $131.61 per share. The share price was $68.44 on September 25, 2026, 48% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 6.0% | 10.0% | $75.88 | +11% |
| Base | 11.0% | 9.0% | $131.61 | +92% |
| Bull | 16.0% | 8.0% | $235.51 | +244% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $172.92 | $185.68 | $201.29 | $220.80 | $245.88 |
| 8.0% | $141.97 | $150.25 | $160.03 | $171.78 | $186.13 |
| 9.0% | $119.41 | $125.07 | $131.61 | $139.23 | $148.23 |
| 10.0% | $102.27 | $106.30 | $110.86 | $116.08 | $122.10 |
| 11.0% | $88.84 | $91.79 | $95.09 | $98.80 | $103.01 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Etsy Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (10.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions