What is Elastic N.V. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Elastic N.V.'s reported free cash flow gives $102.04 per share. The share price was $88.12 on September 25, 2026, 14% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $63.13 | -28% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $102.04 | +16% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $174.49 | +98% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $131.50 | $140.69 | $151.91 | $165.95 | $183.99 |
| 8.0% | $109.37 | $115.33 | $122.37 | $130.81 | $141.14 |
| 9.0% | $93.27 | $97.34 | $102.04 | $107.52 | $114.00 |
| 10.0% | $81.06 | $83.95 | $87.24 | $90.99 | $95.32 |
| 11.0% | $71.50 | $73.63 | $76.00 | $78.67 | $81.70 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Elastic N.V.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (23.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions