What is Energy Recovery, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Energy Recovery, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $5.86 per share. The share price was $7.38 on November 10, 2026, 26% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -2.5% | 10.0% | $3.94 | -47% |
| Base | 2.5% | 9.0% | $5.86 | -21% |
| Bull | 7.5% | 8.0% | $9.60 | +30% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $7.21 | $7.62 | $8.12 | $8.74 | $9.54 |
| 8.0% | $6.21 | $6.47 | $6.79 | $7.16 | $7.62 |
| 9.0% | $5.47 | $5.65 | $5.86 | $6.11 | $6.39 |
| 10.0% | $4.91 | $5.04 | $5.19 | $5.35 | $5.54 |
| 11.0% | $4.47 | $4.56 | $4.67 | $4.79 | $4.92 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Energy Recovery, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (2.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions