What is Enphase Energy, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Enphase Energy, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $20.80 per share. The share price was $32.40 on September 25, 2026, 56% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 8.5% | 10.0% | $12.66 | -61% |
| Base | 13.5% | 9.0% | $20.80 | -36% |
| Bull | 18.5% | 8.0% | $37.03 | +14% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $27.07 | $29.02 | $31.40 | $34.37 | $38.19 |
| 8.0% | $22.37 | $23.63 | $25.12 | $26.91 | $29.10 |
| 9.0% | $18.95 | $19.81 | $20.80 | $21.97 | $23.34 |
| 10.0% | $16.35 | $16.96 | $17.66 | $18.45 | $19.37 |
| 11.0% | $14.31 | $14.76 | $15.27 | $15.83 | $16.47 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Enphase Energy, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (13.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions