What is EMCOR Group, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on EMCOR Group, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $842.09 per share. The share price was $762.21 on September 25, 2026, 9% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 9.0% | 10.0% | $520.27 | -32% |
| Base | 14.0% | 9.0% | $842.09 | +10% |
| Bull | 19.0% | 8.0% | $1,441.56 | +89% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $1,084.50 | $1,159.93 | $1,252.12 | $1,367.36 | $1,515.52 |
| 8.0% | $902.52 | $951.43 | $1,009.24 | $1,078.61 | $1,163.40 |
| 9.0% | $770.05 | $803.50 | $842.09 | $887.11 | $940.31 |
| 10.0% | $669.56 | $693.35 | $720.30 | $751.11 | $786.65 |
| 11.0% | $590.90 | $608.33 | $627.82 | $649.74 | $674.59 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at EMCOR Group, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (14.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions