What is Elanco Animal Health Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Elanco Animal Health Inc's reported free cash flow gives $5.81 per share. The share price was $22.31 on September 25, 2026, 284% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.5% | 10.0% | $1.25 | -94% |
| Base | 7.5% | 9.0% | $5.81 | -74% |
| Bull | 12.5% | 8.0% | $14.89 | -33% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $9.19 | $10.23 | $11.50 | $13.08 | $15.12 |
| 8.0% | $6.66 | $7.33 | $8.13 | $9.08 | $10.25 |
| 9.0% | $4.82 | $5.27 | $5.81 | $6.42 | $7.16 |
| 10.0% | $3.41 | $3.74 | $4.11 | $4.53 | $5.02 |
| 11.0% | $2.30 | $2.54 | $2.81 | $3.11 | $3.45 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Elanco Animal Health Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions