What is Estee Lauder Companies Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Estee Lauder Companies Inc's reported free cash flow gives $35.14 per share. The share price was $112.44 on November 10, 2026, 220% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -6.5% | 10.0% | $18.83 | -83% |
| Base | -1.5% | 9.0% | $35.14 | -69% |
| Bull | 3.5% | 8.0% | $67.58 | -40% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $46.53 | $49.92 | $54.06 | $59.25 | $65.91 |
| 8.0% | $38.09 | $40.29 | $42.89 | $46.01 | $49.82 |
| 9.0% | $31.90 | $33.40 | $35.14 | $37.16 | $39.55 |
| 10.0% | $27.15 | $28.22 | $29.43 | $30.82 | $32.42 |
| 11.0% | $23.40 | $24.18 | $25.06 | $26.04 | $27.16 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Estee Lauder Companies Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (-1.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions